This is one of those random thoughts that come across your mind when you think about the technology industry in general. How does a new gadget like the iPhone perform? What is the best initial prediction to make? Come to think of it, you have around tens of thousands of new electronic gadgets coming out every year. Of these, some where between 1% and 5% are of good quality that should even have made it past the design process. I believe that does not include the copycat and shadow products out there. Of the good quality ones, only about 10% make it to the market at the right time. Of the right timed ones, only about a tenth of them really capture people's imagination and become a huge hit that changes the lives of people. I am just guessing the percentage and there is no proof to support them , but I think they would be in a reasonable ballpark. SO, finally we have about one of two products every year that may succeed depending upon the complex equation that is the consumer. Given all this, I think the market analyst's prediction that "I question if the product will succeed?" seems to be right almost always.
Two behaviors that are common among market analysts are "I dont think the product will make it" or "always predicting in the same direction for the company quarter after quarter". So, I am beginning to wonder if you can say "no" to the product's success and still have a great record that fails once in ten thousands times because those are the products that really make it?
I understand predicting a product's success margin is a hugely complicated job that depends on infinite factors, but, there are people who bank on market prediction and make the big bucks. So, is market prediction almost always easy? Can u make the big bucks with a negative attitude?
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